Predicting election results from Google Trends!
There are different ways to assess public mood during elections. TV channels deploy polling agencies, who gauge the mood through face-to-face interviews or some other mode. Political parties have booth-level workers, online feedback systems, etc.
Some analysts feel that Google Trends are a significant tool, although unscientific, in assessing public mood with zero resources. As per CrowdWisdom360, Google Trends have a 85 percent accuracy of predicting the winner during elections!
For example, if Google searches for candidates, speeches, etc. suggest that one party is drawing greater attention than its rival, one can conclude that voters are showing keen interest in that party. In the case of Delhi, BJP and AAP are the key contenders. If you compare Google Trends for the first week of February, it suggests that BJP is clearly ahead of AAP.
Social media influencer Ahibhsek Banerjee has been doing such analysis for years now. He could predict the loss of the BJP in both Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh in 2018 accurately in this manner. "Google Trends data is absolutely clear. Interest in BJP is uniformly higher than interest in AAP. It would be surprising if Google trends, which correlated so well with winners in rural states like Rajasthan or MP, fails in Delhi," he says.
The results of the Delhi Assembly elections will be out on February 11. Let's see what is the voter's verdict!